Global debt enters terminal velocity mode: Why central banks have no intention of slowing their public and private debt binge.
Central banks around the world are following one core mission. That mission revolves around expanding debt to goose equity markets and attempting to solve a debt crisis with more debt. Even the more conservative European Central Bank bowed down to easy digital money printing by announcing they too would follow in the footsteps of the Fed and Bank of Japan. Global banking is now fully addicted to non-stop debt. Every dollar of debt is having a smaller impact on what it can do to the real economy. The Fed’s balance sheet is now well over $4.3 trillion and while talks of tapering are made in public, there is no visible action being taken to show this is the intended goal. At the core of the global crisis was an expansion built on too much debt. Banks attacked this issue as one of liquidity but in reality this was a crisis of solvency. Banks never dealt with writing down assets but have decided to use modern day inflation methods to boost banking profits at the expense of working class families. Global debt has now reached a terminal velocity mode and central banks have no choice but to continue to expand their balance sheets.
US household debt nearly twice as high as annual wages and salaries: Inflating the consumer debt bubble with student loans and auto debt.
The latest consumer credit report surprised to the upside. What was the surprise? Americans are back to borrowing money they don’t have. Are they borrowing for investing or possibly purchasing a modest home? No. The latest data shows that Americans are once again going deep into student debt and auto debt. This is actually worse than borrowing for a home you can’t afford. A car will begin losing its value seconds after you drive it off the lot. Yet this is where Americans are pouring their money. So don’t be surprised if you see a pizza delivery person driving in a nicer car than you are. Since the 1980s, households have been supplementing the decline in their standard of living by going into deep debt. The last crisis was more of a debt bubble but it was more visible through the housing market crashing and burning. Housing was only the vector where debt was attached to. Starting in the early 1980s, households started borrowing more money than their actual wages and salaries. At a time when pensions were going extinct in favor of the Wall Street casino, Americans simply filled the gap of weaker wages with debt. So it should come as no surprise that today, US household debt is nearly twice as high as annual wages and salaries.
The impending retirement crisis: Pushing the financial constraints of an economy where many will rely on Social Security for the bulk of their income on the backs of a growing young low wage workforce.
There is a looming retirement crisis on the horizon. Most Americans are ill prepared for a long-term retirement. Back in the early 1980s, over 60 percent of American workers had access to some sort of pension plan. Today, that number is less than 10 percent. Planning for the future is challenging because it takes discipline, a steady source of income, some luck, and support from a rising market. That doesn’t always happen. That is why today, we have a large problem with older Americans not being able to retire. The latest data shows that most baby boomers will depend on Social Security as their primary source of income. Yet this money needs to come from a healthy and ideally, well paid younger population. That is simply not the case. Many younger Americans are saddled with massive student debt and others are unable to find good paying work. A large portion of profits in this recovery have gone straight to the top to a very small portion of the population. Also, a good portion of gains have come from slashing wages, cutting benefits, and squeezing productivity out of workers. This is how we have a nation where 1 out of 3 Americans have no actual savings. For many, Social Security will be the last barrier between them and being financially destitute. Just like saving for retirement takes decades, the current crisis will unfold over decades. Demographics are not looking kindly on the next decade for retirees.
The disappearing labor force: Over 800K Americans drop out of labor force. Since end of recession, those not in the labor force has grown from 80 million to 92 million. Workers younger than 55 lost jobs in April.
It might have come as a surprise to many that the pumped up stock market had no rally from the big employment report last week. Why? The unemployment rate fell from 6.7 to 6.3 percent. One survey showed a big jump in jobs added. As is usually the case, the devil is in the details. The unemployment rate fell dramatically because more than 800K Americans dropped out of the labor force. That is right, nearly 1 million people dropped out of the labor force. So of course this will make the rate look better than expected. In fact, since the recession ended we have added 12 million Americans to the category of “not in the labor force†which trumps even demographic changes. We have discussed that many Americans have no economic means to even retire. What was also interesting in the report is that workers younger than 55 actually lost jobs in the April report. So it is no surprise that the stock market actually turned lower with the whopping jobs report after people dug into the data.