Sep 1 2009

The American Consumer Meets Minimalism: How This Recession Will Change the American Consumer.

Is the American consumer forever changed?  Did the current recession alter the seemingly unrelenting spending machine known as the American consumer?  From early indications, it looks like some habits will be changed for a very long time.  This is a big shift given the nearly endless round of bubbles in the past 30 years culminating with the stunningly manic housing bubble.  But many Americans are now feeling the credit withdrawal pains.  For many, the endless stream of credit card offers has turned into a trickle and in many cases, a complete drought.  Much of this is being brought about by a new found austerity and even shunning of consumption.

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Aug 28 2009

Going Broke on $50,000: The Story of the Struggling American Middle Class. The $50,000 Median Household Budget.

The recent recession is exposing how many American families have been treading on the edge.  Problems were already in the system before the recession began but the downturn in the economy was the ultimate catalyst.  Many families were using credit cards as a means of supplementing a decade of stagnant wages.  The median household income for the entire country is $50,740.  In addition we have 34,000,000 Americans now receiving some form of food stamps.  They are not part of the middle class group.  Yet when we dig deeper into the data, it is clear why so many Americans are going broke on $50,000 a year.

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Aug 27 2009

Demand Destruction Price Deflation: Earnings up when you Fire Employees. California Lowering Tax Brackets. Social Security no Cost of Living Adjustments.

The Consumer Price Index has shown a year over year decline for the first time since the 1950s.  This in itself has added fuel to the growing flame of the menace of deflation.  Yet what we are seeing in the psychical world in the form of price declines is directly linked to demand destruction and the evaporation of old debts in the form of foreclosures and bankruptcies for example.  In a fiat currency like the one we have, the Federal Reserve with the aid of the U.S. Treasury has no bounds in how much money it can print.  But we have seen in this recession nearly $14 trillion in household wealth disappear and this wealth destruction has occurred at a faster pace than any money creation.  The CPI going negative for the first time in half a century will look like full-fledged deflation by the public.  After all, with housing prices bursting from the bubble and other items going down in price, what else is the consumer to expect?

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Aug 24 2009

Federal Reserve Paying Interest on Excess Reserves: Why Lend when you can Earn Interest for Holding on to Funds with Low Risk? The U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve Walking a Tight Rope.

One tiny announcement made by the Federal Reserve back in October of 2008 is finally making some noise in the dark corners of the internet.  What the Federal Reserve announced at the time was that it would begin paying interest on depository institutions’ excess reserve balances.  Now why this is important is that it offers a differing perspective on why banks are holding onto money tightly.  Initially it looked like banks were holding off on making additional loans because of the fear that was permeating through the market.  The U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve tossed all they could at the market in the form of liquidity and this has caused the stunning 50 percent stock market rally since the March lows.

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